Temperatura podría aumentar hasta 7 grados por los gases de efecto invernadero

Los niveles actuales de emisión de gases de efecto invernadero podrían contribuir a una subida de la temperatura global en el futuro de entre 3 y 7 grados centígrados, según revela hoy la revista “Nature”.

Esta previsión está recogida en un estudio desarrollado por la experta Carolyn Snyder, de la Universidad de Stanford en California (EE.UU.), en el que ha calculado la temperatura media de la superficie global (GAST, sus siglas en inglés) durante los pasados dos millones de años.

Se trata de la reconstrucción continua y más extensa de la GAST efectuada hasta la fecha, destaca la investigadora en el texto.

“La reconstrucción del clima de la Tierra tiene gran influencia sobre nuestro conocimiento respecto a la dinámica y sensibilidades del sistema climático”, explica Snyder.

No obstante, señala, la GAST solo ha podido ser calculada durante periodos de tiempo aislado y de manera discontinua, como por ejemplo durante los pasados 20.000 años.

Además, recuerda, la reconstrucción ininterrumpida de la GAST durante los “ciclos glaciales” no había sido posible hasta ahora.

Para superar estas barreras, Snyder recurrió al análisis de una base de datos compuesta por más de 20.000 reconstrucciones de la temperatura del mar obtenida en 59 núcleos de sedimento oceánico.

De esta manera, la experta fue capaz de calcular la GAST de los últimos dos millones de años a intervalos de 1.000 años.

Snyder constató que las temperaturas cayeron gradualmente hasta hace unos 1,2 millones de años, si bien ese proceso de detuvo entonces.

Este dato, apunta, sugiere que el enfriamiento global no fue el único factor causante de la transición entre el pleistoceno inferior y el superior, ocurrida hace entre 1,25 y 700 millones de años, cuando el clima de la Tierra pasó de ciclos glaciales de 41.000 años a ciclos de aproximadamente 100.000 años.

Asimismo, la investigadora sostiene que al combinar esta reconstrucción con registros atmosféricos de dióxido de carbono (CO2), la proyección indica que la GAST podría aumentar en el futuro ente 3 y 7 grados centígrados, incluso si las concentraciones de CO2 se estabilizan en los niveles actuales. 

, ELESPECTADOR.COM – Medio Ambiente,

Constructor de Paz y Empresario Gabriel Ricardo Morales Fallon

Gabriel Morales Fallon trabajando por un mundo sostenible

Gabriel Morales


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