El nivel de incertidumbre sobre si en los próximos meses Colombia se enfrentará o no al fenómeno de La Niña es cada vez menor, pues recientemente el Ideam anunció que la probabilidad se ha elevado de un 60 a un 76%. Es por esto que algunas comunidades ya se están preparando para afrontar un evento que la última vez que pasó por el país, según el Departamento de Planeación Nacional, dejó $11,2 billones de pérdidas sólo entre el 2010 y el 2011.
Este es el caso de la comunidad que rodea la cuenca del río Teusacá. Un grupo de actores que desde hace algunos años vienen batallando para que su recurso hídrico no se agote. Liderados por el acueducto Progresar E.S.P- que cubre los municipios de Sopo, Chía, La Calera y Guasca – han creado una alianza en la que monitorean el agua de sus ríos, tienen vigías ambientales y estudian las dinámicas que se dan alrededor de este ecosistema.
En esta ocasión, dando un paso adelante, la comunidad de la Gran Cuenca del Río Teusacá, como decidieron llamarse, se reunió para conocer cómo prepararse ante una variabilidad climática que ya empezó a susurrarles. En el conversatorio ¡Con “La Niña” no se juega!: entérese, prepárese y prevenga riesgos, dos expertos dieron unas claves para entender en qué consiste este fenómeno.
Para empezar, Ricardo Lozano, director de la Fundación People and Earth y ex director del Ideam, afirmó una frase que se repitió y convirtió en la columna vertebral del conversatorio; “los efectos de La Niña se pueden prevenir, pero con información y conociendo su dinámica”. Insumos que no necesariamente deben venir de las entidades ambientales o científicas, sino de las mismas personas que habitan cerca de la cuenca, pues cada uno es “una pieza del rompecabezas”.
Además, el geólogo dio una formula muy sencilla para empezar a conocer ante qué nos podríamos enfrentar. “La amenaza por la vulnerabilidad da igual el riesgo (R=AxV). Es decir, para saber cuál es mi riesgo, debo conocer el agente amenazante y cómo estoy expuesto ante esto”, concluyó.
Pero, entonces, ¿qué es esa amenazada conocida como La Niña? Según explicó Lozano, lo que se conoce como el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña, son sólo uno de los 15 factores de la variabilidad climática y dependen, principalmente, del comportamiento de la atmosfera y los océanos. De hecho, a partir de la temperatura de este último se determina si se declara un fenómeno o no.
“Cuando los vientos dejan de soplar, las aguas cálidas de Indonesia se devuelven y buscan las costas de Tumaco en el pacifico colombiano. Esto genera que las aguas frías se escondan y empiece a madurar el fenómeno de El Niño. Con La Niña, es al revés: los vientos se fortalecen, mandan de nuevo las aguas cálidas a Indonesia y llegan las frías a Tumaco, aumentando las lluvias”.
En terminó de cifras declarar un fenómeno de El Niño o la Niña en Colombia funciona así: la temperatura del mar en Tumaco es de 23 ºC en promedio. Si está variable se ubica sobre un rango de -0.5 o 0.5 ya hay una especie de “alerta” de que, en el primer caso, llegue una Niña o, en el segundo, un Niño. Sin embargo, para que se declare el fenómeno, el aumento o decrecimiento de la temperatura debe estar por arriba o por debajo de este rango durante cinco meses seguidos.
Por esto, para sentir sus efectos y prepararse, no hay que esperar a que el fenómeno madure. “Ya sabemos que la temperatura de nuestro océano pacífico está por debajo del rango, lo que quiere decir que, por lo menos, tendremos un poquito más de agua”, afirmó Lozano. Lo que implica que, tomar medidas, como lo está haciendo la comunidad del río de Teusacá, no es un esfuerzo en vano. “Estamos en -0.3, entonces puede que tengamos Niña, pero eso no nos debería importar porque sí hay un enfriamiento del mar y podrá aumentar en los meses de octubre, noviembre y diciembre”.
Con cerca de 81.593 damnificados sólo en Cundinamarca, costos de emergencia mayores a 11.105 millones de pesos y un total de 296.372 millones de pesos que se fueron en reparaciones e infraestructura, según Colombia Humanitaria, La Niña del 2010-2011 puso en vilo a la nación. Incluyendo a la comunidad de Teusacá que, por ejemplo, a la altura del condominio La Pradera, vio cómo se inundaron todas sus casas.
Sergio Arturo Piñeres, Ingeniero Civil de la Universidad Javeriana y ex director de Distritos de Riesgo, se enfocó en explicar cuáles son las particularidades de la subcuenca del río Teusacá. Es decir, la segunda parte de la fórmula que había planteado Lozano, “cómo estoy expuesto ante el fenómeno”.
“La cuenca del río Teusacá es una subcuenca del río Bogotá y está dividida en dos condiciones geomorfológicas: una pendiente y otra plana”, explicó. Aspecto que es importante conocer ya que dependiendo de la inclinación de la cuenca el tipo de “catástrofe” cambia. Cuando es pendiente, como sucede con el 40% de la cuenca, se es susceptible a una venida torrencial que crea una emergencia rápida, pero agresiva. En cambio, cuando está en un territorio plano, como sucede con el otro 60% que es el Valle de Teusacá, se va generando una inundación lenta y prolongada, por lo que a pesar de tener menos riesgos para las personas, sí representa mayor impacto económico negativo.
Para prepararse, entonces, el ingeniero sugirió pensar en un ordenamiento ambiental donde el eje central sea la visión de cuenca. El problema, sin embargo, es que esto representa un reto administrativo. La cuenca atraviesa distintos municipios y habría que articular a sus líderes para lograr un trabajo real. De hecho, explica, 33% pertenece a La Calera, 27% a Sopo y Guasca e, incluso, un 7% está en Bogotá. Esto sin contar con que Chía, Ubaque, Choachí y Tocancipa tienen un área en la desembocadura.
A partir de la experiencia del mes de abril de 2011, donde las lluvias en la región estuvieron 405% por encima del promedio y el ingeniero estuvo al frente de la CAR (Corporación Autónoma Regional de Cundinamarca), Piñeros sugirió a la comunidad tener en cuenta estas recomendaciones: crear un comité de gestión del riesgo de la cuenca con una finalidad preventiva, valorar la incorporación de la gestión de riesgo en los POT, identificar los actores institucionales y la sociedad civil, analizar la creación de una asociación de municipios de la cuenca del Teusacá, delimitar las rondas del río y fijar los nuevos escenario de inundación hidráulica.
Unas primeras recomendaciones que no solo serían útiles para esta comunidad, sino para todas aquellas que quieran empezar a tomar acciones. Porque, si algo quedó claro, es que no hay que esperar a que madure La Niña para prepararse.
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